Embracing FIFA World Cup: Manipulation Tips Intro

As the opening date of the 2018 FIFA World Cup approaches, operators of various sports lottery platforms are fitfully anticipating. Ever wondered why sports lottery has such an inextricable influence amongst nation worldwide? In China, sales of sports lottery have exceeded to 200 billion RMB. This is only the official statistics on the legal lottery sales, the actual amount of underground operations will probably be more astonishing.

 

the graph display currency unit is 100 million, RMB

In 2013, there was a study on the consumption of sports lottery, which profoundly showed why it’s so inextricable charming. After reviewing these reasons, a formation was found, if applying these elements properly, it will be an effective way to promote the performance of sports wagering!the graph display currency unit is 100 million, RMB

1) Illusion of Control

Is there a possibility to predict sports wagering? In fact, studies show under these circumstances, it is difficult to anticipate in advance, it’s mostly based on random occurrences. However, some gamblers believe that they have the knowledge or technology to control the result of these wagering. This shows they have generated an illusion of control, believing that their knowledge or technology can achieve to their desired results. According to studies, as the degree of illusion projects, the chances of gamblers invest grows higher, and more frequent and involvements in all aspects.

2) Gambler’s Misconception of Hot Hand

When a coin is flipped 5 times in a row, each time it’s been “head”. Which side should the gambler bet for the next flip? If you choose “head”, its likely to be a misconception of hot hand; if you choose the opposite side “tails”, it may be a cause of gambler’s fallacy. The probability of having tossed “head” six times in a row is 0.5 to the sixth power, and the probability of having the sixth toss being “head” is still 0.5 to the sixth power. In other words, just because when the coin is being flipped a “head” five times in a row, it will not indicate the next toss to be “head”, it can only be generated randomly on its probability, these misconceptions often toss away reasoning and logic. In the same way, when a football team has continuously won games, it doesn’t indicate they will defiantly win again. There are a lot of perspectives to put into consideration, but for gamblers, that’s misguided by this misconception of hot hand disagrees.

3) Cause of Illusion

Majority of people who wagers on lottery often combine 2 unrelated events as the same cause illusion. A gambler reaches out to God or worships Buddha for prayers or rituals before the gambler wagers for the lottery, and the gambler happens to win the lottery, since that occurrence, the gambler will continuously do that same routine before any wagers in the near future. Such case is the cause of illusion to perceptual biases, some people would even designate time or place to bet, simply because they believe these occurrences could greatly increase their chances of winning.

4) Self-Serving Bias and Hindsight Bias

If someone says, “we achieved because of me, and we failed because of other reasons.” This is a classic example of what self-serving bias is. For gamblers a lot of the winning results are credited to their own knowledge, experience, research and judgments; and when they fail to win the responsibility will be blamed to reasons such as bad luck, low rake reversal rate, or even suspected external factors such as black-case operations.

“I should have expected it…” is a common saying of hindsight bias. After learning the outcome of the incident, and looking for a variety of reasons to defend against their own decision-making mistakes, such people will continue to overestimate their ability to predict and make decisions based on that. Both of these deviations will only increase more cause of illusion.

5) Probability Error

Majority of people can’t estimate the odds of each wager to actually win, so a lot of the wagers are made based on their intuitive or empirically. And there is a very important trait of psychological characteristics of humanity to underestimate high-frequency events and overestimate low-frequency events. For Example, traffic accidents occur more frequently than a plane crash, but often people focus their attention towards plane cash more than traffic accidents. This applies to wager as well, there are countless lose that occurs daily, but people only remember or focus on the lucky ones that occasionally occurs.

6) Herd Behavior

In previous articles, there were mentions of herd behavior (conformity behavior). Simply put, wages tend to be consistent with another individual’s decisions, and they feel reassured when their decisions are based on the same as another individual; otherwise, they will feel un at ease. Therefore, the operators can effectively use bettor’s herd behavior mentality to guide to results that are more beneficial to them.

7) Winning Association

More than 90% of gambling participants will generate winning association thoughts. They will conceptualize their own situation after winning the prize, and how they will feel about the occurrence, and how to handle the grand prize. According to research results, winning association can strengthen the willingness to bet and slow down the sense of loss after a failure occurs. In addition, people with high levels of winning associations are also likely to overestimate the chances of winning and deepen the impact of probability errors.

8) Near Miss

Near miss is a type of psychological state which generates regrets and excitement by a near success of failure, and it is a critical psychological mechanism that motivates people to continue wagering. This psychological mechanism process has three states:

(1) a strong sense of excitement when approaching victory.

(2) feeling extremely regretful when they almost won the grand prize.

(3)the chance of winning is not far away, so it is necessary to be persistent.

Such a process will have a considerable incentive to linger on more and continue wagering.

9) Sunk Cost Effect

Once a huge amount of money, time, and efforts are being invested, would you be willing to give it all up? Sunk cost effect is when someone invests a lot of money in a project, they will not easily withdraw and have the tendency to continue investing until it gains profit. In the same consumption of lottery tickets, the sunk cost effect has two aspects. The first aspect is as the amount of investment continually increases, they will continue to bet until a profit is reached. The second aspect is when a huge amount of investment has made for a long time with no result and is fearful to give up the loss. By using the sunk cost effect to influence bettors is a crucial point for a profitable outcome! When gamblers are deeply stuck in their circumstance and can not jump out of the sunk cost effect, the loss will only increase.

The above-mentioned elements are not only limited to sports wagering but almost universal in any aspect of iGaming industry. If you would like to understand more specifically how to apply these elements, stay tuned for our next article!

References:
王斌, 叶绿, 马红宇, 史文文, 李娜,2013,体育彩票消费中问题博彩的认知偏差研究述,天津体育学院学报2013年第28卷第3